Matchup analysis
Our model projects Notre Dame 39, SMU 19 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.6 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game). Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game).
Expect SMU to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) outranks SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense). Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 2 and Notre Dame by 43 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 18.5. The game is on NBC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SMU / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -17.5 | 56.5 | +750 / -1200 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -17.5 | 56.5 | +750 / -1200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -20.5 | 57.6 | 91% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -17.5 | 56.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -18 | 56.9 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -20.6 · market Notre Dame -17.5 · difference +3.1 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 56.5 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Notre Dame than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
SMU vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
| Stat | SMU | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.4#20 | 41.1#6 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#48 | 13.4#5 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#11 | 6.54#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#33 | 4.72#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.1#78 | 185.3#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 315.3#7 | 261.3#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.4#55 | 82.9#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.6#19 | 170.4#18 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#92 | 0.14#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#118 | 1.43#15 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#12 | 2.14#60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#26 | 0.29#1 |
| Stat | SMU | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#15 | +0.22#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#49 | -0.09#14 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#17 | 50.9%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.5%#28 | 34.2%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#22 | 11.3%#105 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#52 | 6.6%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#29 | 16.3%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#28 | 10.2%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#66 | 5.08#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#98 | 4.40#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#6 | own 32#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#13 | own 26#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#48 | 68.3#44 |
| Stat | SMU | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#95 | +0.09#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#4 | +0.36#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#65 | -0.06#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#45 | -0.12#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#41 | 51.0%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 52.0%#11 | 50.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#119 | 14.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.3%#15 | 30.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#9 | 26.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#44 | 44.0%#46 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.9%#5 | 42.9%#109 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#27 | 66.7%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.9%#125 | 66.7%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SMU schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.