Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SMU 44.8, Missouri State 12.8 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: SMU wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32 points and 57.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Missouri State is 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-7.3 per game). SMU (No. 22) is 2-1, scoring 38 and allowing 25 points per game (+13 per game).
SMU's strong defense (21st) should limit Missouri State's struggling offense (123rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: SMU's strong offense (16th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.3 points against an average defense) against Missouri State's struggling defense (129th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SMU by 9 and SMU by 55 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SMU by about 29.9. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Missouri State 24, SMU 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22 points and the total by 0.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri State / SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -34.75 → SMU -30.5 | 58.75 → 60.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
| DraftKings | SMU -34.5 → SMU -30.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
| Bovada | SMU -35 → SMU -30.5 | 58 → 60.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SMU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SMU -32 | 57.5 | 98% |
| Market consensus | SMU -30.5 | 60.5 | 96% |
| Blended projection | SMU -31 | 60.3 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SMU win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model SMU -32 · market SMU -30.5 · difference +1.5 pts (SMU view)
- Total
- model 57.5 · market 60.5 · difference -3.0
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward SMU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri State 12.8, SMU 44.8 | SMU 98%right winner | 22.0 | 0.5 |
| New formula | Missouri State 12.1, SMU 45.2 | SMU 99%right winner | 23.0 | 0.7 |
Final: Missouri State 24, SMU 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri State vs SMU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Missouri State | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0#106 | 38.0#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3#118 | 25.0#91 |
| Yards per play | 6.44#64 | 8.00#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#87 | 5.51#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.3#80 | 165.3#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.3#77 | 365.3#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.0#126 | 187.3#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.0#51 | 156.0#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#77 | 1.67#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#114 | 0.67#105 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#91 | 1.67#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#32 | 1.00#51 |
| Stat | Missouri State | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#64 | +0.32#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#113 | +0.09#98 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#71 | 52.9%#5 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.7%#117 | 38.5%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#85 | 16.9%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#94 | 14.3%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 16.8%#24 | 14.3%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.9%#18 | 9.3%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.25#71 | 3.91#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.54#113 | 4.69#118 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#112 | own 32#44 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#118 | own 28#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#111 | 66.3#64 |
| Stat | Missouri State | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#61 | +0.04#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#61 | +0.58#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#112 | +0.04#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#98 | +0.14#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6%#40 | 50.0%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 44.1%#69 | 55.6%#13 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#71 | 16.1%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#125 | 43.5%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#85 | 24.4%#33 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#112 | 45.9%#53 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5%#80 | 18.4%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.3%#102 | 71.4%#35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#87 | 83.3%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri State schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 4 projections
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