Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SMU 34.8, California 18.2 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: SMU wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.6 points and 53 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
California is 3-4, scoring 23.9 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-3.8 per game). SMU (No. 23) is 5-1, scoring 32.7 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+11.4 per game).
SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) should limit California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: SMU's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) against California's below-average defense (109th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between California by 6 and SMU by 39 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SMU by about 14.5. The game is on CW.
Result: California 20, SMU 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.4 points and the total by 26.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (California / SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SMU -18.5 | 55.5 | +725 / -1100 |
| Opening line | SMU -16.5 | 54.5 | +590 / -900 |
| DraftKings | SMU -18.5 | 55.5 | +675 / -1050 |
| FanDuel | SMU -18.5 | 55.5 | +740 / -1250 |
| BetRivers | SMU -19 | 56.5 | +700 / -1250 |
| BetMGM | SMU -19 | 55.5 | +725 / -1000 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SMU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SMU -16.5 | 53.0 | 86% |
| Market consensus | SMU -18.5 | 55.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | SMU -18.5 | 55.7 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SMU win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model SMU -16.6 · market SMU -18.5 · difference -1.9 pts (SMU view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 55.5 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward California than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | California 18.2, SMU 34.8 | SMU 86%right winner | 22.4 | 26.0 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: California 20, SMU 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
California vs SMU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3#86 | 32.2#26 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2#83 | 20.5#32 |
| Yards per play | 5.55#97 | 6.59#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#51 | 5.62#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.7#134 | 149.3#89 |
| Net passing yards per game | 280.0#16 | 282.8#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.1#78 | 127.7#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.4#43 | 289.2#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.77#27 | 1.46#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#96 | 1.62#9 |
| Sacks per game | 1.46#108 | 2.69#16 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.31#106 | 1.38#31 |
| Stat | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#82 | +0.04#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#70 | -0.09#19 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#85 | 42.3%#71 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#71 | 40.7%#57 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#87 | 13.5%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#55 | 10.1%#24 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#85 | 11.7%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#61 | 11.6%#54 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#42 | 4.52#17 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15#102 | 3.03#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 29#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#84 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#32 | 65.5#77 |
| Stat | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#99 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#64 | +0.06#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#122 | -0.14#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#32 | -0.06#41 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7%#112 | 41.2%#96 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#51 | 43.1%#48 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#54 | 19.0%#87 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#27 | 31.7%#53 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.8%#19 | 33.3%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#75 | 41.2%#66 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#74 | 36.0%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9%#46 | 74.4%#9 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9%#80 | 41.3%#5 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: California schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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