Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wake Forest 28, SMU 27 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Wake Forest wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game). SMU (No. 19) is 6-1 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.4 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+15.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Wake Forest's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.2 points against an average defense) against SMU's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd). SMU's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) meets Wake Forest's strong defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points SMU puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 24 and SMU by 22 about 80% of the time.
SMU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wake Forest is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Wake Forest vs SMU: stat comparison
| Stat | Wake Forest | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#15 | 36.4#20 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.4#30 | 21.1#48 |
| Yards per play | 6.94#15 | 7.05#11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.62#9 | 5.12#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.1#71 | 164.1#78 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.3#16 | 315.3#7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 112.7#15 | 144.4#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.1#77 | 170.6#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#8 | 1.00#92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#136 | 0.57#118 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#24 | 3.00#12 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#46 | 1.14#26 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#5 | +0.21#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#33 | +0.01#49 |
| Success rate | 49.3%#15 | 49.0%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#67 | 37.5%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#4 | 15.1%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.6%#8 | 11.0%#52 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#41 | 15.7%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.7%#4 | 11.2%#28 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.35#1 | 4.13#66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.39#31 | 4.08#98 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#42 | own 34#6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#25 | own 26#13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#82 | 68.0#48 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#34 | +0.03#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.39#3 | +0.38#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#13 | +0.03#65 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#53 | -0.01#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#13 | 46.8%#41 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#19 | 52.0%#11 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#60 | 20.4%#119 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.8%#3 | 38.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#50 | 24.1%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 49.4%#20 | 44.2%#44 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.2%#102 | 28.9%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.3%#30 | 71.7%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.3%#24 | 71.9%#125 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · SMU schedule · all Week 11 projections
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