Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Virginia 34, Delaware 20 at Scott Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Virginia wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 53.9 combined points.
Delaware is 2-1, scoring 30 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+11.3 per game). Virginia is 2-1, scoring 40 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+23.7 per game).
Expect Delaware to find it hard going: Virginia's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) outranks Delaware's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense). Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Delaware's below-average defense (103rd); that mismatch is where most of Virginia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 9 and Virginia by 37 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia by about 11.9. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Delaware 3, Virginia 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25 points and the total by 8.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware / Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia -20.25 → Virginia -19.75 | 52.5 | +800 / -1425 |
| DraftKings | Virginia -20.5 → Virginia -19.5 | 52.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| Bovada | Virginia -20 | 52.5 | +750 / -1400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia -14 | 53.9 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Virginia -20 | 52.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Virginia -19 | 53.2 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Virginia -14 · market Virginia -19.75 · difference -5.7 pts (Virginia view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 52.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 5.7 pts more toward Delaware than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware 20.0, Virginia 34.0 | Virginia 82%right winner | 25.0 | 8.9 |
| New formula | Delaware 20.5, Virginia 33.8 | Virginia 81%right winner | 25.7 | 9.3 |
Final: Delaware 3, Virginia 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware vs Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Delaware | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#77 | 40.0#29 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7#52 | 16.3#34 |
| Yards per play | 6.45#63 | 6.24#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.09#52 | 5.01#47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.0#123 | 232.7#27 |
| Net passing yards per game | 299.7#22 | 183.0#101 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.7#40 | 131.3#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.0#86 | 174.3#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#87 | 0.33#23 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#97 | 1.33#32 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#17 | 1.67#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#127 | 1.67#78 |
| Stat | Delaware | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#48 | +0.11#63 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#55 | +0.03#71 |
| Success rate | 44.3%#66 | 51.8%#9 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#45 | 37.9%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#43 | 13.1%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#34 | 12.4%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 18.4%#12 | 15.2%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#122 | 8.3%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.52#50 | 5.41#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.88#10 | 4.45#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#63 | own 34#34 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#47 | own 27#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#68 | 66.7#61 |
| Stat | Delaware | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#60 | +0.10#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#53 | +0.13#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#71 | +0.16#116 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#58 | -0.11#26 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2%#71 | 51.0%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 43.6%#72 | 53.0%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#86 | 13.4%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6%#97 | 25.7%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#67 | 24.1%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.9%#113 | 34.2%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.1%#50 | 35.6%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.6%#32 | 76.9%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.4%#84 | 66.7%#95 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 4 projections
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