Matchup analysis
Our model projects Virginia 31, California 19 at Scott Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Virginia wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.1 points and 49.3 combined points.
California is 3-5 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-8.2 per game). Virginia is 4-4 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+8.7 per game).
Expect California to find it hard going: Virginia's strong defense (39th) outranks California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Virginia's below-average offense (91st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over California's below-average defense (109th); that mismatch is where most of Virginia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between California by 10 and Virginia by 35 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia by about 10.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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California vs Virginia: stat comparison
| Stat | California | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4#102 | 28.3#73 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6#120 | 19.6#32 |
| Yards per play | 5.31#120 | 5.41#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.40#120 | 5.39#54 |
| Rushing yards per game | 92.4#138 | 182.8#54 |
| Net passing yards per game | 281.5#17 | 181.6#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.8#119 | 154.3#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.1#87 | 185.8#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#71 | 0.25#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#51 | 1.00#50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#90 | 1.88#78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#63 | 3.38#135 |
| Stat | California | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#121 | +0.07#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#115 | +0.06#74 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#125 | 45.5%#43 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#71 | 40.1%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1%#128 | 11.3%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.0%#135 | 11.7%#70 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#117 | 14.7%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#124 | 11.9%#35 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17#128 | 4.38#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.57#121 | 3.87#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#122 | own 31#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#132 | own 26#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.4#19 | 67.4#56 |
| Stat | California | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#125 | +0.04#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#100 | +0.10#68 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.20#133 | +0.10#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#73 | +0.02#57 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#122 | 46.7%#43 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#109 | 43.9%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0%#136 | 16.6%#63 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#112 | 22.7%#135 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0%#49 | 25.4%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#96 | 32.7%#128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%#87 | 33.9%#26 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.2%#111 | 64.5%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#104 | 61.1%#79 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: California schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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