Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 25, Virginia 24.3 at Scott Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Duke wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Duke is 4-2, scoring 31.7 and allowing 16 points per game (+15.7 per game). Virginia is 4-3, scoring 30 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+10.3 per game).
Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) meets Virginia's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Duke puts up. Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) should limit Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 23 and Virginia by 22 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Duke is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Duke 19, Virginia 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.3 points and the total by 14.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duke / Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia -2.5 | 47.5 | +112 / -135 |
| Opening line | Virginia -6.5 | 53.5 | +225 / -278 |
| DraftKings | Virginia -2.5 | 47.5 | +114 / -135 |
| FanDuel | Virginia -2.5 | 47.5 | +112 / -134 |
| BetRivers | Virginia -2.5 | 46.5 | +112 / -137 |
| BetMGM | Virginia -2.5 | 47.5 | +110 / -130 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -0.5 | 49.2 | 48% |
| Market consensus | Virginia -2.5 | 47.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Virginia -2 | 48.6 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -0.7 · market Virginia -2.5 · difference -3.2 pts (Virginia view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 47.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Duke than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duke 25.0, Virginia 24.3 | Duke 52%right winner | 2.3 | 14.2 |
| New formula | Duke 25.0, Virginia 24.2 | Duke 52%right winner | 2.2 | 14.3 |
Final: Duke 19, Virginia 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duke vs Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.7#54 | 30.0#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#19 | 19.7#38 |
| Yards per play | 6.33#55 | 5.55#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15#36 | 5.26#46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.2#27 | 178.9#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.7#64 | 188.1#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 105.5#13 | 165.6#90 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.8#50 | 176.3#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#26 | 0.14#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#95 | 1.00#48 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83#86 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#2 | 3.14#132 |
| Stat | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#78 | +0.10#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#43 | +0.08#84 |
| Success rate | 40.7%#97 | 47.5%#29 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#63 | 40.6%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#48 | 11.1%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7%#18 | 11.3%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#92 | 14.2%#60 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#33 | 10.9%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.10#70 | 4.54#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#50 | 3.88#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 31#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#12 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#29 | 66.1#66 |
| Stat | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#93 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#62 | +0.13#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#23 | +0.13#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#76 | +0.02#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5%#95 | 49.0%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 42.8%#65 | 45.6%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#65 | 14.9%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#61 | 22.8%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.7%#16 | 25.8%#24 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.1%#30 | 33.3%#124 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.9%#14 | 35.3%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.5%#88 | 70.4%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.7%#100 | 64.7%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.