2026 schedule

Duke Blue Devils

5-2SOS #90

2026 season so far

Duke is 5-2 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Duke ranks 43rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 48th on offense and 45th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Boston College in Week 9. We project Duke 29, Boston College 20 — Duke wins 74% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Tulane Green Wave
0-1 · SOS #50
Win 17-3
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Duke by 4.3
Total 58.9
DraftKings
DUKE -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 14. Duke beat the spread. 20 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -8.75 (open Duke -8.5) · O/U 51 (open 53.5) · ML +325 / -430 · Duke 77% no-vig · model vs market -4.4 pts, -16 pct pts (Duke view)
ACC Network/ACCNX Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
at
Illinois Fighting Illini
1-1 · SOS #28
Win 31-27
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 5.3
Total 55.7
DraftKings
ILL -6
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 4. Duke beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -6.25 (open Illinois -7.25) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML +200 / -242.5 · Illinois 68% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, -4 pct pts (Illinois view)
FS1 Gies Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
vs
Stanford Cardinal
1-2 · SOS #14
Win 35-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Duke by 11.8
Total 48.2
DraftKings
DUKE -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 28. Duke beat the spread. 42 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -9.75 · O/U 51.5 (open 50.75) · ML +290 / -372.5 · Duke 75% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Duke view)
CW Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
William & Mary Tribe
2-3 · SOS #78
Win 62-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Duke by 35.2
Total 56.2
DraftKings
DUKE -43.5
Total 61.5
Final Duke by 55. Duke beat the spread. 69 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -43 (open Duke -44) · O/U 61.5 (open 61.25) · model vs market -7.8 pts (Duke view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)
ACCNX Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2-3 · SOS #43
Loss 25-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Duke by 3.5
Total 54.1
DraftKings
DUKE -4.5
Total 45.5
Final Georgia Tech by 3. Georgia Tech beat the spread. 53 points — over the 45.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -4.5 (open Duke -7) · O/U 45.25 (open 48.75) · ML -240 / +197.5 · Georgia Tech 33% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 66°F, Wind 7 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFTY)
ESPN2 Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 87% · 2 ✓J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 75 (avg 98) · 71% · 69 ✓N. Sheppard RB · Low rush yds 135 (avg 161) · 69% · 99 ✓
vs
North Carolina Tar Heels
4-2 · SOS #10
Loss 20-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Duke by 4.3
Total 48.9
DraftKings
DUKE -3
Total 46.5
Final North Carolina by 4. North Carolina beat the spread. 44 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -3 (open Duke -4) · O/U 46.75 (open 51) · ML +140 / -165 · Duke 60% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +1 pct pts (Duke view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 55°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)
ESPN2 Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded gamesUnderdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: missed (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 84% · 1 ✓J. Shipp WR · Low rec yds 50 (avg 73) · 73% · 75 ✗B. Hall RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 55) · 70% · 7 ✓
at
Virginia Cavaliers
4-4 · SOS #54
Win 19-16
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Duke by 0.7
Total 49.3
DraftKings
UVA -2.5
Total 47.5
Final Duke by 3. Duke beat the spread. 35 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -2.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +112 / -135 · Virginia 58% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -10 pct pts (Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHO)
ESPN Scott Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 7-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 7-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: hit (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 82% · 1 ✓
vs
Boston College Eagles
4-3 · SOS #61
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-20 · 74%
Our number
Duke by 9
Total 49
DraftKings
DUKE -7
Total 47.5
We're 2 points higher on Duke than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -7 · O/U 47.5 · ML +220 / -272.5 · Duke 70% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Duke view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CW Wallace Wade Stadium
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank 3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 82%M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 88) · 72%B. MacCormack III RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 49) · 68%
at
NC State Wolfpack
3-4 · SOS #67
Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 30-28 · 56%
Our number
Duke by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Carter-Finley Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 79%W. Eget QB · High pass yds 236 (avg 206) · 56%
at
#1 Miami Hurricanes
7-0 · SOS #72
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 16-40 · 6%
Our number
Miami by 24
Total 56
DraftKings
MIA -21
Total 55.5
We're 3 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -21 · O/U 55.5 · ML +1000 / -1800 · Miami 91% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Miami view)
Hard Rock Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · N. Sheppard RB · Low rush yds 79 (avg 125) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Campbell Jr. RB · Low rush yds 25 (avg 37) · 78%M. Toney WR · TD threat 73%
vs
Clemson Tigers
4-3 · SOS #24
Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 25-22 · 59%
Our number
Duke by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Wallace Wade Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 78%G. Davidson RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 70) · 70%T. Reynolds QB · High pass yds 168 (avg 157) · 56%
at
#14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6-1 · SOS #47
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 21-30 · 29%
Our number
Wake Forest by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 93) · 73%N. Sheppard RB · Low rush yds 90 (avg 125) · 72%N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 67%

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Duke Blue Devils stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+5.4

43rd in FBS

Adj. offense

28.9

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

23.4

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	29.9	62 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	16.0	18 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.35	48 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.04	29 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	190.9	43 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	233.7	59 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	120.4	23 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	185.6	37 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.57	31 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.71	91 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.29	51 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	0.43	2 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.06	84 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.02	35 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.1%	107 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	39.0%	39 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.8%	38 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.0%	21 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.3%	66 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.1%	41 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.04	76 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.43	34 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	54 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 25	9 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	66.9	63 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.00	110 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.12	57 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.08	18 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.05	70 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	39.9%	106 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	42.9%	59 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	17.5%	78 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	32.1%	58 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	25.3%	17 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	44.2%	43 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	31.5%	12 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	54.8%	109 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	57.7%	59 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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