Matchup analysis
Our model projects Duke 25, Clemson 22 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Duke wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Clemson is 4-3 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.1 per game). Duke is 5-2 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game).
Expect Clemson to find it hard going: Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) outranks Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense). Clemson's strong defense (30th) should limit Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Clemson by 19 and Duke by 26 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 1.3. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Clemson vs Duke: stat comparison
| Stat | Clemson | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#112 | 29.9#62 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#52 | 16.0#18 |
| Yards per play | 5.24#123 | 6.35#48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.80#14 | 5.04#29 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.3#80 | 190.9#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.7#107 | 233.7#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.9#57 | 120.4#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0#20 | 185.6#37 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#108 | 0.57#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#116 | 0.71#91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#16 | 2.29#51 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#131 | 0.43#2 |
| Stat | Clemson | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#132 | +0.06#84 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#24 | -0.02#35 |
| Success rate | 37.1%#129 | 40.1%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#66 | 39.0%#39 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#123 | 13.8%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#31 | 10.0%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0%#13 | 14.3%#66 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#113 | 12.1%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.23#126 | 4.04#76 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#16 | 3.43#34 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#31 | own 31#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#18 | own 25#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#59 | 66.9#63 |
| Stat | Clemson | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.00#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16#134 | +0.12#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#80 | -0.08#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#11 | +0.05#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.3%#117 | 39.9%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#120 | 42.9%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#99 | 17.5%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#86 | 32.1%#58 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9%#123 | 25.3%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.3%#129 | 44.2%#43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#24 | 31.5%#12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.9%#135 | 54.8%#109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8%#71 | 57.7%#59 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Clemson schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.