Matchup analysis
Our model projects Duke 29, Boston College 20 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Duke wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 49 combined points.
Boston College is 4-3 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game). Duke is 5-2 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game).
Expect Boston College to find it hard going: Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) outranks Boston College's below-average offense (96th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense). Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) meets Boston College's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Duke puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boston College by 13 and Duke by 32 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 7.8. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Boston College / Duke) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -7 | 47.5 | +220 / -272.5 |
| FanDuel | Duke -7.5 | 47.5 | +215 / -265 |
| theScore Bet | Duke -6.5 | 47.5 | +210 / -250 |
| BetRivers | Duke -7.5 | 47.5 | +215 / -278 |
| DraftKings | Duke -7 | 47.5 | +225 / -278 |
| BetMGM | Duke -7 | 47.5 | +220 / -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Duke -7.5 | 47.5 | +220 / -275 |
| Pinnacle | Duke -7 | 48 | +222 / -268 |
| Bovada | Duke -7 | 48 | +220 / -270 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duke win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -10 | 49.0 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Duke -7 | 47.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Duke -7.5 | 48.6 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duke win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -9.9 · market Duke -7 · difference +2.9 pts (Duke view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 47.5 · difference +1.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Duke 71%.
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Duke than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Boston College vs Duke: stat comparison
| Stat | Boston College | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#96 | 29.9#62 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6#63 | 16.0#18 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#57 | 6.35#48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29#47 | 5.04#29 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.6#36 | 190.9#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.6#101 | 233.7#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9#90 | 120.4#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.4#25 | 185.6#37 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#127 | 0.57#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#17 | 0.71#91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#53 | 2.29#51 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#110 | 0.43#2 |
| Stat | Boston College | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#104 | +0.06#84 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#42 | -0.02#35 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#84 | 40.1%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#62 | 39.0%#39 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#31 | 13.8%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#11 | 10.0%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#43 | 14.3%#66 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.4%#130 | 12.1%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#118 | 4.04#76 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#42 | 3.43#34 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 31#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#118 | own 25#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7#91 | 66.9#63 |
| Stat | Boston College | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#41 | +0.00#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#130 | +0.12#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#48 | -0.08#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#46 | +0.05#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#33 | 39.9%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 34.3%#129 | 42.9%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#123 | 17.5%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#103 | 32.1%#58 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#99 | 25.3%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.2%#78 | 44.2%#43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#44 | 31.5%#12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.3%#115 | 54.8%#109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.8%#54 | 57.7%#59 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boston College schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.