Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 45.7, William & Mary 10.5 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Duke wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.2 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
William & Mary is 2-2, scoring 26 and allowing 35.8 points per game (-9.8 per game). Duke is 3-0, scoring 27.7 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+15.4 per game).
William & Mary plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Duke's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 13 and Duke by 58 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 33.1. The game is on ACCNX.
Result: William & Mary 7, Duke 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.8 points and the total by 12.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (William & Mary / Duke) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -44 → Duke -43 | 61.25 → 61.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Duke -43.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Duke -44.5 → Duke -42.5 | 62 → 61.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duke win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -35 | 56.2 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Duke -43 | 61.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Duke -42 | 61.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duke win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Duke -35.2 · market Duke -43 · difference -7.8 pts (Duke view)
- Total
- model 56.2 · market 61.5 · difference -5.3
Model margin is 7.8 pts more toward William & Mary than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | William & Mary 10.5, Duke 45.7 | Duke 99%right winner | 19.8 | 12.8 |
| New formula | William & Mary 8.6, Duke 47.4 | Duke 99%right winner | 16.3 | 13.0 |
Final: William & Mary 7, Duke 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
William & Mary vs Duke: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | William & Mary | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0 | 27.7#88 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.8 | 12.3#18 |
| Yards per play | 5.20 | 6.05#81 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.46 | 5.01#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.5 | 228.7#30 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.0 | 177.0#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 285.5 | 92.3#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.8 | 208.3#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 0.67#56 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75 | 1.00#55 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00#59 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 0.33#3 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.01#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | -0.03#37 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 38.9%#114 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1% | 39.8%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 14.3%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9% | 9.4%#24 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 13.3%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 19.1% | 12.9%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.65#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.43#40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 32#54 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 26#26 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0 | 67.0#53 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.02#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.02#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.30 | -0.07#33 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.01#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.3% | 40.2%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 42.5%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.1% | 18.9%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 29.1%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7% | 24.4%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9% | 37.8%#102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.7% | 29.7%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 60.4%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.4%#64 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.