Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wake Forest 30, Duke 21 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 51.1 combined points.
Duke is 5-2 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game). Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game).
Expect Duke to find it hard going: Wake Forest's strong defense (20th) outranks Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense). Wake Forest's strong offense (28th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th); that mismatch is where most of Wake Forest's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 14 and Wake Forest by 31 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wake Forest by about 6.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Duke vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
| Stat | Duke | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#62 | 37.4#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#18 | 19.4#30 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#48 | 6.94#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.04#29 | 4.62#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.9#43 | 166.1#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7#59 | 282.3#16 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.4#23 | 112.7#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6#37 | 209.1#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#31 | 0.29#8 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#91 | 0.29#136 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#51 | 2.57#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#2 | 1.43#46 |
| Stat | Duke | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#84 | +0.27#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#35 | -0.03#33 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#107 | 49.3%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0%#39 | 40.7%#67 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#38 | 17.6%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#21 | 8.6%#8 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#66 | 15.1%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#41 | 8.7%#4 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#76 | 5.35#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#34 | 3.39#31 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#54 | own 31#42 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#9 | own 26#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9#63 | 64.6#82 |
| Stat | Duke | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#110 | +0.14#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#57 | +0.39#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#18 | -0.09#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.01#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.9%#106 | 50.0%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 42.9%#59 | 49.0%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#78 | 16.5%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#58 | 43.8%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3%#17 | 28.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#43 | 49.4%#20 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#12 | 42.2%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.8%#109 | 71.3%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.7%#59 | 47.3%#24 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 13 projections
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