Matchup analysis
Our model projects Miami 40, Duke 16 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.1 points and 56.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Duke is 5-2 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game). Miami (No. 1) is 7-0 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 49 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+33.7 per game).
Miami's elite defense (4th) should limit Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) against Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 2 and Miami by 47 about 80% of the time.
Miami gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami by about 22.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duke / Miami) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -21 | 55.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
| DraftKings | Miami -21 | 55.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -24 | 56.8 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Miami -21 | 55.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Miami -21.5 | 55.9 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -24.1 · market Miami -21 · difference +3.1 pts (Miami view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 55.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Miami than the market.
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Duke vs Miami: stat comparison
| Stat | Duke | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#62 | 49.0#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#18 | 15.3#11 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#48 | 7.83#2 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.04#29 | 5.02#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.9#43 | 219.0#20 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7#59 | 326.7#5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.4#23 | 72.6#1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6#37 | 227.9#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#31 | 0.29#12 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#91 | 0.57#115 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#51 | 2.71#20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#2 | 1.29#37 |
| Stat | Duke | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#84 | +0.31#2 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#35 | -0.02#36 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#107 | 53.1%#2 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0%#39 | 37.3%#27 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#38 | 16.4%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#21 | 11.0%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#66 | 12.3%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#41 | 8.4%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#76 | 5.21#3 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#34 | 2.94#7 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#54 | own 30#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#9 | own 28#48 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9#63 | 69.7#28 |
| Stat | Duke | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#110 | +0.12#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#57 | +0.50#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#18 | -0.24#1 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.11#90 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.9%#106 | 47.3%#38 |
| Passing success rate | 42.9%#59 | 59.2%#1 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#78 | 10.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#58 | 41.0%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3%#17 | 30.7%#82 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#43 | 53.9%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#12 | 34.4%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.8%#109 | 73.9%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.7%#59 | 43.1%#12 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · Miami schedule · all Week 11 projections
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