Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 26.6, North Carolina 22.3 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Duke wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Carolina is 3-2, scoring 23.4 and allowing 19 points per game (+4.4 per game). Duke is 4-1, scoring 34 and allowing 14.4 points per game (+19.6 per game).
Expect North Carolina to find it hard going: Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) outranks North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense). Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) meets North Carolina's strong defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Duke puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 18 and Duke by 27 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: North Carolina 24, Duke 20. North Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina / Duke) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -4 → Duke -3 | 51 → 46.75 | +140 / -165 |
| DraftKings | Duke -4.5 → Duke -3 | 54.5 → 46.5 | +130 / -155 |
| Bovada | Duke -3.5 → Duke -3 | 47.5 → 47 | +150 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duke win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -4 | 48.9 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Duke -3 | 46.8 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Duke -3 | 47.9 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duke win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -4.2 · market Duke -3 · difference +1.2 pts (Duke view)
- Total
- model 48.9 · market 46.75 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Duke than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina 22.3, Duke 26.6 | Duke 61%wrong winner | 8.2 | 4.9 |
| New formula | North Carolina 21.9, Duke 27.1 | Duke 63%wrong winner | 9.2 | 4.9 |
Final: North Carolina 24, Duke 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina vs Duke: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4#100 | 34.0#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#36 | 14.4#13 |
| Yards per play | 6.06#74 | 6.53#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.13#39 | 5.13#38 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.0#124 | 224.6#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.0#80 | 228.4#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.4#97 | 97.6#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.6#62 | 195.8#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#111 | 0.40#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#34 | 0.60#107 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#42 | 1.80#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20#102 | 0.20#1 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#87 | +0.06#83 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#58 | +0.01#51 |
| Success rate | 44.9%#53 | 40.7%#100 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4%#99 | 40.3%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#98 | 13.9%#44 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.5%#2 | 9.6%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#110 | 12.9%#96 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#100 | 11.2%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.64#34 | 4.12#68 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.28#25 | 3.54#47 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#66 | own 31#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#120 | own 25#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.8#135 | 69.4#32 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#94 | +0.05#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#83 | +0.08#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#79 | -0.07#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#46 | +0.08#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#59 | 40.9%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 44.1%#54 | 44.9%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#82 | 16.5%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1%#46 | 31.3%#74 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.3%#19 | 25.7%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8%#70 | 47.8%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#103 | 30.0%#10 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8%#41 | 62.5%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#39 | 65.7%#101 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.