Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 28.8, Georgia Tech 25.3 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Duke wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Duke is 4-0, scoring 36.3 and allowing 11 points per game (+25.3 per game). Georgia Tech is 1-3, scoring 27 and allowing 26 points per game (+1 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) against Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th). Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) should limit Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 26 and Georgia Tech by 19 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Duke is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28. Georgia Tech won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duke / Georgia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -7 → Duke -4.5 | 48.75 → 45.25 | -240 / +197.5 |
| Bovada | Duke -7 → Duke -4.5 | 49 → 45 | -275 / +225 |
| DraftKings | Duke -7 → Duke -4.5 | 48.5 → 45.5 | -205 / +170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -3.5 | 54.1 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Duke -4.5 | 45.3 | 33% |
| Blended projection | Duke -4.5 | 46.9 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Tech win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -3.5 · market Duke -4.5 · difference +1.0 pts (Georgia Tech view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 45.25 · difference +8.9
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Georgia Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duke 28.8, Georgia Tech 25.3 | Duke 59%wrong winner | 6.5 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Duke 28.4, Georgia Tech 25.3 | Duke 58%wrong winner | 6.2 | 0.7 |
Final: Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duke vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Duke | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.3#37 | 27.0#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.0#6 | 26.0#94 |
| Yards per play | 6.82#33 | 6.11#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.73#19 | 5.69#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 241.0#15 | 152.0#96 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.8#75 | 237.5#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 80.8#4 | 202.0#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.3#52 | 180.8#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#34 | 1.25#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#93 | 0.50#116 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#50 | 1.50#100 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.25#2 | 2.50#108 |
| Stat | Duke | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#102 | +0.09#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#49 | +0.19#125 |
| Success rate | 39.9%#109 | 44.9%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3%#68 | 43.3%#99 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#40 | 16.3%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#20 | 12.4%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#94 | 11.8%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#46 | 15.8%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.95#80 | 3.76#99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51#43 | 3.60#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#35 | own 30#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#34 | own 31#111 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#49 | 63.8#91 |
| Stat | Duke | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#95 | +0.10#59 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#82 | +0.08#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#16 | +0.10#105 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#87 | +0.31#131 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6%#96 | 48.1%#40 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8%#45 | 43.2%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#69 | 18.9%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#102 | 32.7%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.5%#33 | 37.4%#126 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#58 | 35.4%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.0%#10 | 43.6%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.0%#95 | 49.1%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.4%#77 | 44.9%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 6 projections
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