Matchup analysis
Our model projects Duke 30, NC State 28 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Duke wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 58.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Duke is 5-2 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.9 per game). NC State is 3-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against NC State's below-average defense (90th). NC State's strong offense (38th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) meets Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 25 and NC State by 20 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Duke is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Duke vs NC State: stat comparison
| Stat | Duke | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#62 | 32.3#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#18 | 28.1#105 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#48 | 5.98#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.04#29 | 6.27#113 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.9#43 | 172.1#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7#59 | 239.6#53 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.4#23 | 146.9#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6#37 | 231.0#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#31 | 0.71#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#91 | 0.57#117 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#51 | 1.29#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#2 | 1.86#73 |
| Stat | Duke | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#84 | +0.19#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#35 | +0.22#133 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#107 | 45.2%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0%#39 | 45.4%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#38 | 12.8%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#21 | 15.9%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#66 | 11.1%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#41 | 13.9%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#76 | 5.09#5 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#34 | 4.69#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#54 | own 28#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#9 | own 28#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9#63 | 68.9#39 |
| Stat | Duke | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#110 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#57 | +0.30#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#18 | +0.14#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.28#130 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.9%#106 | 40.8%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 42.9%#59 | 49.5%#18 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#78 | 16.6%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#58 | 37.5%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3%#17 | 33.2%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#43 | 52.5%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#12 | 35.6%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.8%#109 | 71.7%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.7%#59 | 80.4%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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