Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois 30.5, Duke 25.2 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Illinois wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Duke is 1-0, scoring 17 and allowing 3 points per game (+14 per game). Illinois is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 23 points per game (+19 per game).
Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense) meets Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Duke puts up. Illinois's strong offense (39th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th); that mismatch is where most of Illinois's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duke by 17 and Illinois by 28 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois by about 3.2. The game is on FS1.
Result: Duke 31, Illinois 27. Duke won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duke / Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -7.25 → Illinois -6.25 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +200 / -242.5 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -8.5 → Illinois -6 | 51.5 | +205 / -250 |
| Bovada | Illinois -6 → Illinois -6.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +195 / -235 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -5.5 | 55.7 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -6.5 | 51.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -6 | 52.4 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois -5.3 · market Illinois -6.25 · difference -1.0 pts (Illinois view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 51.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Duke than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duke 25.2, Illinois 30.5 | Illinois 64%wrong winner | 9.3 | 2.3 |
| New formula | Duke 22.0, Illinois 32.4 | Illinois 74%wrong winner | 14.4 | 3.6 |
Final: Duke 31, Illinois 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duke vs Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Duke | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.6#16 | 29.4#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4#99 | 23.6#56 |
| Yards per play | 6.30#33 | 6.02#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.42#121 | 5.45#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 153.9#85 | 156.2#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.1#18 | 226.1#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.2#59 | 138.0#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 276.0#131 | 213.5#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#55 | 0.92#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#23 | 0.92#79 |
| Sacks per game | 1.79#88 | 2.08#59 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79#71 | 2.46#113 |
| Stat | Duke | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#28 | +0.07#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#128 | +0.08#111 |
| Success rate | 46.0%#30 | 48.1%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8%#97 | 45.4%#121 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#37 | 13.5%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#133 | 10.0%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#13 | 13.1%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#75 | 14.3%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#15 | 4.49#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47#123 | 4.57#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#25 | own 31#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#32 | own 29#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4#44 | 63.5#102 |
| Stat | Duke | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#61 | +0.01#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#23 | +0.13#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#72 | +0.02#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.23#131 | +0.12#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4%#48 | 48.4%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 46.5%#20 | 47.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1%#112 | 19.9%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7%#52 | 38.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#113 | 36.9%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#82 | 44.4%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.2%#125 | 46.2%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.8%#22 | 58.9%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#126 | 65.2%#105 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duke schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 2 projections
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