Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 30, Stanford 18.2 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Duke wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 48.2 combined points.
Stanford is 1-1, scoring 21.5 and allowing 36 points per game (-14.5 per game). Duke is 2-0, scoring 24 and allowing 15 points per game (+9 per game).
Expect Stanford to find it hard going: Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) outranks Stanford's below-average offense (111th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.3 points against an average defense). Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Stanford's below-average defense (109th); that mismatch is where most of Duke's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stanford by 11 and Duke by 34 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 9.7. The game is on CW.
Result: Stanford 7, Duke 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.2 points and the total by 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stanford / Duke) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -9.75 | 50.75 → 51.5 | +290 / -372.5 |
| DraftKings | Duke -10 → Duke -9.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +295 / -375 |
| Bovada | Duke -9.5 → Duke -10 | 51 → 51.5 | +285 / -370 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duke win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -12 | 48.2 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Duke -10 | 51.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Duke -10 | 52.0 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duke win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -11.8 · market Duke -9.75 · difference +2.1 pts (Duke view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 51.5 · difference -3.3
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Duke than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stanford 18.2, Duke 30.0 | Duke 78%right winner | 16.2 | 6.2 |
| New formula | Stanford 18.0, Duke 35.8 | Duke 87%right winner | 10.2 | 11.8 |
Final: Stanford 7, Duke 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stanford vs Duke: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Stanford | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.5#109 | 24.0#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.0#128 | 15.0#44 |
| Yards per play | 5.75#95 | 5.75#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.24#110 | 5.41#76 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.0#113 | 209.0#44 |
| Net passing yards per game | 263.0#44 | 164.5#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 90.0#20 | 89.0#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 347.0#136 | 241.0#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#8 | 0.50#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#95 | 1.00#59 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#108 | 1.00#109 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#18 | 0.50#19 |
| Stat | Stanford | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#59 | +0.03#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.31#135 | -0.03#44 |
| Success rate | 42.9%#75 | 37.8%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2%#125 | 40.5%#74 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#43 | 11.9%#88 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#45 | 9.7%#32 |
| Havoc rate | 10.3%#126 | 12.8%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#23 | 12.7%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.80#100 | 3.75#102 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 6.10#137 | 3.42#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 24#132 | own 32#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#33 | own 26#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#50 | 65.0#80 |
| Stat | Stanford | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#48 | +0.04#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#67 | +0.02#94 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#91 | -0.09#36 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.43#133 | +0.01#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#74 | 34.6%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 41.7%#79 | 40.8%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9%#67 | 20.5%#106 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.9%#123 | 26.9%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.9%#114 | 23.1%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#79 | 38.5%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.6%#131 | 34.6%#57 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#98 | 62.4%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.3%#124 | 51.4%#53 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 3 projections
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