Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duke 31.6, Tulane 27.3 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Duke wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Tulane has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Duke has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Duke's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) should limit Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense). Duke's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) meets Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Duke puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 18 and Duke by 27 about 80% of the time.
Duke gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duke by about 2.2. The game is on ACC Network/ACCNX.
Result: Tulane 3, Duke 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.7 points and the total by 38.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulane / Duke) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duke -8.5 → Duke -8.75 | 53.5 → 51 | +325 / -430 |
| Bovada | Duke -8.5 → Duke -8 | 53.5 → 50.5 | +350 / -480 |
| DraftKings | Duke -8.5 → Duke -9.5 | 51.5 | +300 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duke win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duke -4.5 | 58.8 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Duke -9 | 51.0 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Duke -8 | 52.2 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duke win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Duke -4.3 · market Duke -8.75 · difference -4.4 pts (Duke view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 51 · difference +7.8
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulane 27.3, Duke 31.6 | Duke 61%right winner | 9.7 | 38.8 |
| New formula | Tulane 22.9, Duke 33.0 | Duke 72%right winner | 3.9 | 35.9 |
Final: Tulane 3, Duke 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulane vs Duke: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tulane | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.7#68 | 34.6#16 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9#58 | 29.4#99 |
| Yards per play | 6.27#34 | 6.30#33 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#69 | 6.42#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 170.6#67 | 153.9#85 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.9#50 | 277.1#18 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.9#37 | 156.2#59 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 254.7#123 | 276.0#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07#72 | 0.93#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71#7 | 1.43#23 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#24 | 1.79#88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#8 | 1.79#71 |
| Stat | Tulane | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#46 | +0.11#28 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#87 | +0.13#128 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#38 | 46.0%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9%#112 | 43.8%#97 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#45 | 13.5%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#35 | 15.6%#133 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#70 | 14.8%#13 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#17 | 12.2%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.94#73 | 4.59#15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81#63 | 4.47#123 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#3 | own 32#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#21 | own 28#32 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6#61 | 68.4#44 |
| Stat | Tulane | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#98 | +0.04#61 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#21 | +0.17#23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#90 | +0.01#72 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#80 | +0.23#131 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#68 | 45.4%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 47.4%#16 | 46.5%#20 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#57 | 21.1%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#28 | 31.7%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#99 | 33.3%#113 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#43 | 40.0%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8%#73 | 46.2%#125 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.5%#86 | 70.8%#22 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.0%#81 | 71.4%#126 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · Duke schedule · all Week 1 projections
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