Matchup analysis
Our model projects Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 21 at Lane Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Virginia Tech wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 48 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Virginia is 4-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+8.7 per game). Virginia Tech is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+14.5 per game).
Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (50th) should limit Virginia's below-average offense (91st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense). Virginia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) meets Virginia's strong defense (39th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Virginia Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia by 17 and Virginia Tech by 28 about 80% of the time.
Virginia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia Tech by about 3.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Virginia / Virginia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia Tech -1.5 | 53.5 | +105 / -125 |
| DraftKings | Virginia Tech -1.5 | 53.5 | +105 / -125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia Tech -5.5 | 48.0 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Virginia Tech -1.5 | 53.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Virginia Tech -2 | 53.7 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia Tech win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Virginia Tech -5.4 · market Virginia Tech -1.5 · difference +3.9 pts (Virginia Tech view)
- Total
- model 48.0 · market 53.5 · difference -5.5
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Virginia Tech than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Virginia vs Virginia Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Virginia | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#73 | 35.0#34 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6#32 | 20.5#38 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#116 | 5.94#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#54 | 4.84#17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.8#54 | 159.0#85 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.6#115 | 267.4#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.3#68 | 104.4#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.8#38 | 183.9#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#5 | 0.50#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#50 | 0.50#121 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88#78 | 3.25#7 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.38#135 | 2.88#125 |
| Stat | Virginia | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.09#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#74 | +0.06#75 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#43 | 45.6%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#58 | 39.4%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#104 | 13.6%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#70 | 13.1%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#55 | 18.0%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#35 | 13.3%#70 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#45 | 4.35#47 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87#76 | 3.44#36 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#53 | own 32#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#24 | own 29#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4#56 | 71.8#10 |
| Stat | Virginia | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.02#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#68 | +0.14#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#103 | -0.02#42 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#57 | +0.11#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#43 | 45.1%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9%#54 | 44.5%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#63 | 20.8%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.7%#135 | 36.2%#27 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#18 | 26.2%#28 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7%#128 | 40.4%#75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.9%#26 | 31.1%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.5%#60 | 60.2%#78 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#79 | 58.6%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia schedule · Virginia Tech schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.