Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Virginia 29.6, West Virginia 24.3 on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Virginia wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Virginia is 2-0, scoring 41.5 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+26 per game). Virginia (No. 25) is 2-0, scoring 46.5 and allowing 5.5 points per game (+41 per game).
Expect West Virginia to find it hard going: Virginia's strong defense (29th) outranks West Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense). Virginia's strong offense (41st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over West Virginia's below-average defense (87th); that mismatch is where most of Virginia's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Virginia by 17 and Virginia by 28 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27. West Virginia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Virginia / Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia -9 → Virginia -10.75 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +305 / -395 |
| DraftKings | Virginia -8.5 → Virginia -10.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +320 / -410 |
| Bovada | Virginia -9.5 → Virginia -11 | 54.5 → 51.5 | +290 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia -5 | 53.9 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Virginia -11 | 51.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Virginia -10 | 52.3 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Virginia -5.2 · market Virginia -10.75 · difference -5.5 pts (Virginia view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 51.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward West Virginia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Virginia 24.3, Virginia 29.6 | Virginia 63%wrong winner | 16.2 | 11.1 |
| New formula | West Virginia 22.5, Virginia 31.2 | Virginia 71%wrong winner | 19.7 | 11.3 |
Final: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Virginia vs Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | West Virginia | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.5#32 | 46.5#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.5#45 | 5.5#4 |
| Yards per play | 7.03#35 | 6.80#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#89 | 4.17#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 307.0#9 | 257.5#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.5#112 | 184.5#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.5#63 | 71.0#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.0#107 | 169.0#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#7 | 0.50#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#30 | 2.00#8 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50#11 | 2.00#62 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#17 | 1.00#40 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#21 | +0.15#41 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#105 | -0.14#14 |
| Success rate | 46.0%#38 | 60.2%#2 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1%#95 | 35.1%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#75 | 16.3%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#120 | 6.5%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 17.8%#22 | 20.8%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0%#31 | 7.1%#5 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.50#42 | 5.54#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.61#10 | 2.20#2 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#67 | own 36#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#54 | own 25#31 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#53 | 65.0#79 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#57 | +0.08#61 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.51#4 | +0.30#23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#76 | +0.19#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#113 | -0.32#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3%#62 | 58.8%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 54.5%#19 | 63.3%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#25 | 16.1%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#63 | 29.4%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#75 | 16.1%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 60.7%#13 | 31.8%#120 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6%#56 | 30.0%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#86 | 77.8%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.7%#18 | 50.0%#38 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Virginia schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 3 projections
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