Matchup analysis
Our model projects Virginia 22, North Carolina 22 at Scott Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Virginia wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
North Carolina is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+3.5 per game). Virginia is 4-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+8.7 per game).
Expect North Carolina to find it hard going: Virginia's strong defense (39th) outranks North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense). North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) should limit Virginia's below-average offense (91st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 22 and Virginia by 23 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field North Carolina would be favoured by 1.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Carolina vs Virginia: stat comparison
| Stat | North Carolina | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#97 | 28.3#73 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#43 | 19.6#32 |
| Yards per play | 5.82#88 | 5.41#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#41 | 5.39#54 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.0#123 | 182.8#54 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.6#81 | 181.6#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.9#93 | 154.3#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.1#81 | 185.8#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#91 | 0.25#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#58 | 1.00#50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#71 | 1.88#78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#95 | 3.38#135 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#101 | +0.07#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#69 | +0.06#74 |
| Success rate | 45.6%#42 | 45.5%#43 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#94 | 40.1%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#98 | 11.3%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.3%#4 | 11.7%#70 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2%#126 | 14.7%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#49 | 11.9%#35 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#33 | 4.38#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#30 | 3.87#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#64 | own 31#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#116 | own 26#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.7#129 | 67.4#56 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#100 | +0.04#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.10#68 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#81 | +0.10#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.02#57 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#67 | 46.7%#43 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#35 | 43.9%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#58 | 16.6%#63 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#68 | 22.7%#135 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#8 | 25.4%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#47 | 32.7%#128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7%#107 | 33.9%#26 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#55 | 64.5%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#34 | 61.1%#79 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 12 projections
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