Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Virginia 29.7, NC State 24.1 at Scott Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Virginia wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
NC State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Virginia has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
NC State's strong offense (38th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) meets Virginia's strong defense (39th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up. Virginia's below-average offense (91st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) meets NC State's below-average defense (90th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Virginia puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 17 and Virginia by 28 about 80% of the time.
Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia by about 3.5. The game is on ESPN.
Result: NC State 8, Virginia 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.4 points and the total by 11.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (NC State / Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia -3.5 → Virginia -4 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +139.5 / -165 |
| Bovada | Virginia -3.5 → Virginia -4 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +125 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Virginia -4 | 50.5 | +154 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia -5.5 | 53.7 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Virginia -4 | 50.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Virginia -4.5 | 51.4 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Virginia -5.6 · market Virginia -4 · difference +1.6 pts (Virginia view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 50.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Virginia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | NC State 24.1, Virginia 29.7 | Virginia 64%right winner | 20.4 | 11.7 |
| New formula | NC State 24.9, Virginia 29.4 | Virginia 60%right winner | 21.5 | 12.3 |
Final: NC State 8, Virginia 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
NC State vs Virginia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | NC State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.2#45 | 30.8#37 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2#82 | 19.6#22 |
| Yards per play | 6.43#27 | 5.76#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#114 | 5.33#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.1#83 | 188.5#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.2#37 | 235.4#56 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.2#48 | 133.5#24 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 280.2#133 | 198.4#40 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#65 | 0.86#40 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#82 | 1.50#18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.54#102 | 2.14#56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.77#67 | 1.29#20 |
| Stat | NC State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#19 | +0.04#63 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#122 | -0.10#14 |
| Success rate | 43.7%#51 | 42.1%#75 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#40 | 37.0%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#29 | 11.6%#91 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#105 | 9.8%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2%#106 | 13.5%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#81 | 10.7%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#4 | 4.04#61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#49 | 3.73#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#105 | own 32#22 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#81 | own 28#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8#100 | 73.6#6 |
| Stat | NC State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#38 | +0.05#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#18 | +0.02#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#74 | -0.02#48 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#123 | -0.18#12 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9%#63 | 44.1%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 43.4%#43 | 40.2%#82 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.6%#119 | 15.9%#30 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#47 | 33.4%#35 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6%#94 | 21.4%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0%#56 | 50.0%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7%#120 | 29.2%#3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.4%#1 | 57.1%#99 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.2%#74 | 69.4%#121 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: NC State schedule · Virginia schedule · all Week 1 projections
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