Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wake Forest 32.5, Akron 19 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 51.4 combined points.
Akron has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Wake Forest has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Akron to find it hard going: Wake Forest's strong defense (20th) outranks Akron's struggling offense (128th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense). Wake Forest's strong offense (28th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Akron's struggling defense (132nd); that mismatch is where most of Wake Forest's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 9 and Wake Forest by 36 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wake Forest by about 11.4. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Akron 16, Wake Forest 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.5 points and the total by 2.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Akron / Wake Forest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -22.5 → Wake Forest -27.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +1300 / -3550 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -22.5 → Wake Forest -27.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +1100 / -3500 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -22.5 → Wake Forest -27.5 | 50.5 | +1500 / -3600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wake Forest win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wake Forest -13.5 | 51.4 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -27.5 | 50.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -25.5 | 51.3 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wake Forest win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Wake Forest -13.5 · market Wake Forest -27.5 · difference -14.0 pts (Wake Forest view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 50.5 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 14.0 pts more toward Akron than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Akron 19.0, Wake Forest 32.5 | Wake Forest 81%right winner | 8.5 | 2.6 |
| New formula | Akron 14.1, Wake Forest 38.6 | Wake Forest 92%right winner | 2.5 | 1.3 |
Final: Akron 16, Wake Forest 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Akron vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Akron | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3#108 | 28.1#62 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#86 | 22.1#45 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#117 | 6.35#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14#104 | 4.64#4 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0#92 | 164.2#75 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.2#84 | 245.5#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.7#87 | 134.5#26 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.8#83 | 190.5#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#81 | 1.08#76 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#57 | 0.92#83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#62 | 2.38#33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83#122 | 1.23#19 |
| Stat | Akron | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#119 | +0.01#83 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#76 | -0.16#6 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#113 | 39.0%#111 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#67 | 34.7%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#48 | 13.7%#30 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#84 | 8.8%#5 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#24 | 14.7%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#129 | 10.7%#28 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22#125 | 3.66#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.76#59 | 3.48#28 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#68 | own 31#34 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#128 | own 31#115 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9#40 | 64.5#92 |
| Stat | Akron | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#118 | +0.06#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#107 | -0.03#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#89 | -0.14#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#66 | -0.19#11 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6%#98 | 41.3%#95 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#107 | 36.9%#111 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#95 | 16.9%#46 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#91 | 27.7%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#62 | 24.6%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1%#130 | 41.6%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#30 | 36.5%#32 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.6%#126 | 51.2%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#39 | 49.0%#14 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Akron schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 1 projections
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