Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 29, Wake Forest 22.9 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Miami wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Miami (No. 5) is 2-0, scoring 61 and allowing 6.5 points per game (+54.5 per game). Wake Forest is 2-0, scoring 38 and allowing 26 points per game (+12 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (3rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42.5 points against an average defense) against Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th). Miami's elite defense (3rd) should limit Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 29 and Wake Forest by 16 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Miami 33, Wake Forest 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami / Wake Forest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -20.25 | 52.75 → 55.75 | -1750 / +900 |
| Bovada | Miami -21 → Miami -20 | 55 → 56 | -1900 / +900 |
| DraftKings | Miami -19.5 → Miami -20.5 | 50.5 → 55.5 | -1600 / +900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wake Forest win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -6 | 51.9 | 34% |
| Market consensus | Miami -20 | 55.8 | 10% |
| Blended projection | Miami -18 | 55.9 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wake Forest win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 10% · difference +25 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -6.1 · market Miami -20.25 · difference +14.2 pts (Wake Forest view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 55.75 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 14.2 pts more toward Wake Forest than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami 29.0, Wake Forest 22.9 | Miami 66%right winner | 6.9 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Miami 39.0, Wake Forest 17.7 | Miami 91%right winner | 8.2 | 3.7 |
Final: Miami 33, Wake Forest 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Miami | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 61.0#2 | 38.0#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 6.5#7 | 26.0#97 |
| Yards per play | 10.06#1 | 7.34#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.73#11 | 5.15#63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 274.5#11 | 202.5#47 |
| Net passing yards per game | 419.5#2 | 285.5#30 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 69.5#7 | 155.5#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 137.5#23 | 225.5#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#60 | 0.00#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#133 | 0.00#127 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#94 | 2.50#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#8 | 1.00#41 |
| Stat | Miami | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#12 | +0.21#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#50 | +0.08#97 |
| Success rate | 51.9%#8 | 47.2%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#73 | 47.2%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#28 | 17.1%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#74 | 9.4%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#70 | 15.0%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0%#36 | 8.1%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.48#45 | 4.46#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#42 | 4.33#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#72 | own 32#58 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 22#6 | own 30#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#43 | 66.5#66 |
| Stat | Miami | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#47 | +0.08#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.34#12 | +0.34#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#80 | +0.01#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#40 | +0.13#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 66.7%#2 | 50.0%#42 |
| Passing success rate | 78.4%#1 | 44.3%#65 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.6%#42 | 11.6%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#78 | 47.5%#4 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.8%#48 | 40.6%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 69.2%#3 | 48.0%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 20.7%#8 | 46.4%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.3%#52 | 44.4%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.7%#30 | 60.0%#72 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.