Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wake Forest 27, Purdue 22.7 at Ross-Ade Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Wake Forest wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 49.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Wake Forest is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 16 points per game (+22 per game). Purdue is 1-0, scoring 44 and allowing 19 points per game (+25 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Purdue's below-average defense (103rd). Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) should limit Purdue's below-average offense (90th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 27 and Purdue by 18 about 80% of the time.
Purdue gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wake Forest is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.3 points and the total by 24.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wake Forest / Purdue) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -4 → Wake Forest -2.5 | 49.75 → 51.25 | -166.5 / +142 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -3.5 → Wake Forest -2.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -148 / +124 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -4.5 → Wake Forest -2.5 | 50 → 51 | -185 / +160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Purdue win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wake Forest -4.5 | 49.6 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -2.5 | 51.3 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -3 | 51.9 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Purdue win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Wake Forest -4.3 · market Wake Forest -2.5 · difference -1.8 pts (Purdue view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 51.25 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Wake Forest than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wake Forest 27.0, Purdue 22.7 | Wake Forest 61%right winner | 2.3 | 24.4 |
| New formula | Wake Forest 26.3, Purdue 27.3 | Purdue 52%wrong winner | 3.0 | 20.4 |
Final: Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wake Forest vs Purdue: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wake Forest | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.1#62 | 18.8#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1#45 | 31.8#118 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#32 | 5.55#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.64#4 | 6.79#132 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.2#75 | 136.8#113 |
| Net passing yards per game | 245.5#51 | 221.8#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.5#26 | 189.8#109 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.5#30 | 234.0#97 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#76 | 1.50#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#83 | 0.50#130 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#33 | 1.92#73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.23#19 | 1.58#47 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#83 | -0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.16#6 | +0.13#130 |
| Success rate | 39.0%#111 | 42.3%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#7 | 47.9%#130 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#30 | 11.9%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.8%#5 | 14.4%#121 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#16 | 10.6%#118 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#28 | 11.1%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66#105 | 3.46#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.48#28 | 4.26#109 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#34 | own 28#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#115 | own 28#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#92 | 64.6#91 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#53 | +0.07#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#98 | -0.11#114 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#8 | +0.07#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#11 | +0.21#128 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3%#95 | 42.9%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9%#111 | 41.8%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9%#46 | 19.0%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#95 | 34.9%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#11 | 31.2%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.6%#60 | 41.0%#70 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.5%#32 | 45.3%#119 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.2%#119 | 50.0%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.0%#14 | 55.1%#34 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · Purdue schedule · all Week 2 projections
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