Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wake Forest 32, Stanford 19.8 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.1 points and 51.8 combined points.
Stanford is 2-2, scoring 21 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-12.5 per game). Wake Forest is 3-1, scoring 31.5 and allowing 28 points per game (+3.5 per game).
Expect Stanford to find it hard going: Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) outranks Stanford's below-average offense (108th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.7 points against an average defense). Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Stanford's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Wake Forest's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stanford by 10 and Wake Forest by 35 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wake Forest by about 10. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Stanford 3, Wake Forest 57. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 41.9 points and the total by 8.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stanford / Wake Forest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -12.75 → Wake Forest -14.5 | 54.5 → 54.25 | +430 / -600 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -13 → Wake Forest -14.5 | 54.5 → 54 | +390 / -550 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -12.5 → Wake Forest -14.5 | 54.5 | +470 / -650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wake Forest win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wake Forest -12 | 51.8 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -14.5 | 54.3 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -14 | 54.6 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wake Forest win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Wake Forest -12.1 · market Wake Forest -14.5 · difference -2.4 pts (Wake Forest view)
- Total
- model 51.8 · market 54.25 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Stanford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stanford 19.8, Wake Forest 32.0 | Wake Forest 79%right winner | 41.9 | 8.2 |
| New formula | Stanford 18.4, Wake Forest 33.3 | Wake Forest 83%right winner | 39.2 | 8.3 |
Final: Stanford 3, Wake Forest 57. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stanford vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Stanford | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#120 | 31.5#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.5#127 | 28.0#106 |
| Yards per play | 5.66#104 | 6.70#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39#118 | 5.31#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 113.8#129 | 159.5#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.8#41 | 269.0#37 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#94 | 144.5#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 285.8#135 | 239.5#106 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#11 | 0.50#33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#33 | 0.25#128 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#121 | 2.50#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#60 | 2.00#91 |
| Stat | Stanford | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#58 | +0.17#36 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#128 | +0.05#77 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#98 | 44.7%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0%#121 | 44.8%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#87 | 14.6%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.3%#133 | 10.1%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 12.3%#103 | 13.4%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#40 | 10.6%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43#118 | 4.21#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.13#131 | 3.85#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#118 | own 30#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#63 | own 28#70 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5#61 | 64.0#85 |
| Stat | Stanford | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#111 | +0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#38 | +0.29#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#110 | -0.03#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#121 | +0.12#94 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7%#87 | 46.5%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#93 | 43.2%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#119 | 13.2%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.1%#104 | 39.5%#14 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.8%#127 | 33.3%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.2%#112 | 38.3%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.0%#113 | 44.6%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#116 | 50.0%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.3%#118 | 52.6%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 5 projections
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