Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wake Forest 44, Merrimack 3 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Wake Forest wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.9 points and 47.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Merrimack is 3-5 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-10.9 per game). Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game).
Merrimack plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Wake Forest's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 18 and Wake Forest by 63 about 80% of the time.
Wake Forest gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wake Forest by about 38.8. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Merrimack vs Wake Forest: stat comparison
| Stat | Merrimack | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9 | 37.4#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 19.4#30 |
| Yards per play | 5.83 | 6.94#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.92 | 4.62#9 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.1 | 166.1#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.4 | 282.3#16 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 111.3 | 112.7#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.6 | 209.1#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.29#8 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 0.29#136 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.57#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.43#46 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.27#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.03#33 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 49.3%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 40.7%#67 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 17.6%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1% | 8.6%#8 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 15.1%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 8.7%#4 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 5.35#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 3.39#31 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | own 31#42 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | own 26#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8 | 64.6#82 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00 | +0.14#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.39#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.09#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.01#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 50.0%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 38.3% | 49.0%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4% | 16.5%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7% | 43.8%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4% | 28.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0% | 49.4%#20 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0% | 42.2%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.1% | 71.3%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 77.8% | 47.3%#24 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Wake Forest schedule · all Week 10 projections
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