Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisville 36.6, Wake Forest 23.1 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Louisville wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 59.6 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Wake Forest is 2-1, scoring 32 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+3.7 per game). Louisville (No. 16) is 2-1, scoring 46 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+17.7 per game).
Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense) meets Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Wake Forest puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Louisville's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) against Wake Forest's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 9 and Louisville by 36 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisville by about 11.4. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27. Wake Forest won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wake Forest / Louisville) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -13 → Louisville -11.25 | 58.25 → 57.5 | +375 / -505 |
| DraftKings | Louisville -13.5 → Louisville -11.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +380 / -500 |
| Bovada | Louisville -12.5 → Louisville -11 | 58 → 57.5 | +370 / -510 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisville win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -13.5 | 59.6 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -11.5 | 57.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -11.5 | 57.8 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisville win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Louisville -13.5 · market Louisville -11.25 · difference +2.3 pts (Louisville view)
- Total
- model 59.6 · market 57.5 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Louisville than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wake Forest 23.1, Louisville 36.6 | Louisville 81%wrong winner | 16.5 | 2.6 |
| New formula | Wake Forest 24.1, Louisville 35.7 | Louisville 78%wrong winner | 14.6 | 2.8 |
Final: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wake Forest vs Louisville: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wake Forest | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#67 | 46.0#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3#108 | 28.3#110 |
| Yards per play | 6.73#45 | 8.27#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#64 | 5.64#86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.7#98 | 242.0#22 |
| Net passing yards per game | 288.7#28 | 281.7#34 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.7#88 | 163.3#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.0#91 | 239.3#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#24 | 0.00#13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#133 | 1.33#41 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#57 | 1.00#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#79 | 1.00#50 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#28 | +0.37#2 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.11#107 |
| Success rate | 45.4%#43 | 51.4%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9%#119 | 40.5%#77 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#26 | 21.4%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#33 | 10.0%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#105 | 9.0%#132 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#12 | 13.3%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#59 | 5.28#8 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21#94 | 4.00#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 31#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#62 | own 28#71 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#78 | 63.3#94 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#74 | +0.25#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29#22 | +0.52#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#57 | +0.06#95 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#96 | +0.15#104 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.0%#41 | 51.5%#19 |
| Passing success rate | 43.6%#71 | 51.3%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#25 | 18.5%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.6%#7 | 31.1%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.2%#115 | 27.9%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#67 | 44.1%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9%#104 | 31.8%#38 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#119 | 81.8%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.3%#51 | 62.5%#86 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 4 projections
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