Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wake Forest 33, Georgia Tech 21 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and 54.6 combined points.
Wake Forest (No. 14) is 6-1 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+18 per game). Georgia Tech is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-3.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Wake Forest's strong offense (28th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) against Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th). Wake Forest's strong defense (20th) should limit Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 35 and Georgia Tech by 10 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wake Forest is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Wake Forest | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#15 | 26.7#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.4#30 | 30.3#114 |
| Yards per play | 6.94#15 | 6.50#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.62#9 | 6.10#98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.1#71 | 144.1#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.3#16 | 255.4#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 112.7#15 | 222.7#131 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.1#77 | 187.0#40 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#8 | 1.14#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#136 | 0.29#135 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#24 | 1.71#96 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#46 | 2.29#100 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#5 | +0.12#50 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#33 | +0.22#132 |
| Success rate | 49.3%#15 | 44.8%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#67 | 44.8%#119 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#4 | 16.2%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.6%#8 | 13.7%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1%#41 | 11.3%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.7%#4 | 14.8%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.35#1 | 3.93#87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.39#31 | 4.07#96 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#42 | own 28#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#25 | own 31#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#82 | 61.4#113 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#34 | +0.14#32 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.39#3 | +0.11#65 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#13 | +0.17#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#53 | +0.29#131 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#13 | 44.8%#63 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#19 | 44.8%#47 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#60 | 19.1%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.8%#3 | 30.4%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#50 | 39.9%#134 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 49.4%#20 | 35.0%#114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.2%#102 | 44.7%#121 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.3%#30 | 52.0%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.3%#24 | 51.6%#38 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 12 projections
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