Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida State 36, NC State 26 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Florida State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.5 points and 61.8 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
NC State is 3-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game). Florida State is 3-4 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game).
NC State's strong offense (39th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) meets Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Florida State's strong offense (24th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.7 points against an average defense) against NC State's below-average defense (90th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 12 and Florida State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida State by about 8.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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NC State vs Florida State: stat comparison
| Stat | NC State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#48 | 31.6#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1#105 | 27.9#103 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#72 | 6.46#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.27#113 | 6.31#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.1#61 | 193.7#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6#53 | 221.4#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.9#61 | 196.9#116 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.0#104 | 235.6#108 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#50 | 1.14#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#117 | 0.71#92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#117 | 2.57#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#73 | 2.57#116 |
| Stat | NC State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#24 | +0.17#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#133 | +0.20#129 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#46 | 43.1%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4%#124 | 44.7%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#67 | 15.6%#14 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9%#134 | 14.1%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#128 | 12.4%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#89 | 12.1%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.09#5 | 4.70#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.69#127 | 3.70#56 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#106 | own 29#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#50 | own 28#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9#39 | 64.3#84 |
| Stat | NC State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.13#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#14 | +0.23#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#125 | +0.07#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#130 | +0.34#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8%#99 | 45.9%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 49.5%#18 | 39.9%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#64 | 12.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.5%#19 | 38.9%#13 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2%#114 | 30.9%#88 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.5%#13 | 42.7%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6%#39 | 42.9%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.7%#26 | 75.0%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.4%#135 | 62.5%#85 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: NC State schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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