Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vanderbilt 27.8, NC State 23.4 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Vanderbilt wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
NC State is 1-1, scoring 40.5 and allowing 17 points per game (+23.5 per game). Vanderbilt is 2-0, scoring 31.5 and allowing 17.5 points per game (+14 per game).
NC State's strong offense (22nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.5 points against an average defense) meets Vanderbilt's strong defense (34th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points NC State puts up. Vanderbilt's strong offense (35th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over NC State's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th); that mismatch is where most of Vanderbilt's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between NC State by 18 and Vanderbilt by 27 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vanderbilt by about 2.3. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 14.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (NC State / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Vanderbilt -4 → Vanderbilt -3 | 53.5 → 50.5 | +145 / -170 |
| Bovada | Vanderbilt -4 → Vanderbilt -3 | 52.5 → 50.5 | +160 / -185 |
| DraftKings | Vanderbilt -4 → Vanderbilt -3 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Vanderbilt -4.5 | 51.2 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Vanderbilt -3 | 50.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Vanderbilt -3 | 51.3 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Vanderbilt -4.4 · market Vanderbilt -3 · difference +1.4 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 50.5 · difference +0.7
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | NC State 23.4, Vanderbilt 27.8 | Vanderbilt 61%right winner | 0.4 | 14.8 |
| New formula | NC State 27.1, Vanderbilt 31.8 | Vanderbilt 61%right winner | 0.6 | 7.1 |
Final: NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
NC State vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | NC State | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.5#38 | 31.5#68 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#54 | 17.5#58 |
| Yards per play | 7.46#24 | 5.77#93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.66#39 | 4.76#44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 252.5#18 | 149.5#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.5#100 | 219.5#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.0#103 | 125.0#64 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 106.0#6 | 141.5#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#62 | 0.00#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#112 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#96 | 5.50#3 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#98 | 1.00#38 |
| Stat | NC State | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.33#4 | +0.14#46 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#61 | -0.10#19 |
| Success rate | 49.3%#18 | 43.8%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9%#124 | 33.9%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9%#33 | 12.5%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#81 | 11.6%#70 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#124 | 19.6%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.4%#122 | 10.2%#22 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 6.09#3 | 4.36#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#83 | 2.86#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#88 | own 31#75 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#78 | own 25#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.5#105 | 64.0#86 |
| Stat | NC State | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.41#3 | +0.10#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#30 | +0.18#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#86 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#46 | -0.27#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#57 | 38.6%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 51.5%#32 | 50.0%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.1%#13 | 15.7%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#85 | 22.9%#119 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 18.2%#11 | 19.6%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#43 | 33.3%#110 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 18.5%#6 | 16.0%#3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 100.0%#3 | 75.0%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 100.0%#132 | 25.0%#9 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: NC State schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.