Matchup analysis
Our model projects NC State 36, California 25 at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: NC State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
California is 3-5 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-8.2 per game). NC State is 3-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 28.1 points per game (+4.2 per game).
California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets NC State's below-average defense (90th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points California puts up. NC State's strong offense (38th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over California's below-average defense (109th); that mismatch is where most of NC State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between California by 11 and NC State by 34 about 80% of the time.
NC State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour NC State by about 9.7. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (California / NC State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NC State -7 | 56.5 | +221 / -272.5 |
| FanDuel | NC State -6.5 | 56.5 | +205 / -255 |
| theScore Bet | NC State -6.5 | 56.5 | +210 / -250 |
| BetRivers | NC State -7 | 56.5 | +225 / -295 |
| BetMGM | NC State -7 | 56.5 | +220 / -275 |
| DraftKings | NC State -7 | 56.5 | +225 / -278 |
| Hard Rock Bet | NC State -6.5 | 56.5 | +225 / -300 |
| Pinnacle | NC State -7 | 57 | +222 / -269 |
| Bovada | NC State -7 | 57 | +220 / -270 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | NC State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | NC State -12 | 60.9 | 78% |
| Market consensus | NC State -7 | 56.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | NC State -8 | 57.0 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- NC State win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model NC State -11.8 · market NC State -7 · difference +4.8 pts (NC State view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 56.5 · difference +4.4
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies NC State 70%.
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward NC State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
California vs NC State: stat comparison
| Stat | California | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4#102 | 32.3#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6#120 | 28.1#105 |
| Yards per play | 5.31#120 | 5.98#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.40#120 | 6.27#113 |
| Rushing yards per game | 92.4#138 | 172.1#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 281.5#17 | 239.6#53 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.8#119 | 146.9#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.1#87 | 231.0#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#71 | 0.71#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#51 | 0.57#117 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#90 | 1.29#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#63 | 1.86#73 |
| Stat | California | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#121 | +0.19#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#115 | +0.22#133 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#125 | 45.2%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#71 | 45.4%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1%#128 | 12.8%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.0%#135 | 15.9%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#117 | 11.1%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#124 | 13.9%#89 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17#128 | 5.09#5 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.57#121 | 4.69#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#122 | own 28#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#132 | own 28#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.4#19 | 68.9#39 |
| Stat | California | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#125 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#100 | +0.30#14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.20#133 | +0.14#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#73 | +0.28#130 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#122 | 40.8%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#109 | 49.5%#18 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0%#136 | 16.6%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#112 | 37.5%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0%#49 | 33.2%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#96 | 52.5%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%#87 | 35.6%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.2%#111 | 71.7%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#104 | 80.4%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: California schedule · NC State schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.