Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected William & Mary 29.6, Holy Cross 29 at Walter J. Zable Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: William & Mary wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Holy Cross is 1-4, scoring 18.6 and allowing 36.6 points per game (-18 per game). William & Mary is 2-3, scoring 22.2 and allowing 41 points per game (-18.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Holy Cross by 22 and William & Mary by 23 about 80% of the time.
William & Mary gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Holy Cross would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Holy Cross 41, William & Mary 14. Holy Cross won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 27.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Holy Cross / William & Mary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | William & Mary -6.5 → William & Mary -6 | 49.5 → 54.5 | +170 / -216 |
| DraftKings | William & Mary -6.5 → William & Mary -6 | 49.5 → 54.5 | +170 / -216 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | William & Mary win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | William & Mary -0.5 | 58.5 | 52% |
| Market consensus | William & Mary -6 | 54.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | William & Mary -5 | 55.2 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- William & Mary win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model William & Mary -0.6 · market William & Mary -6 · difference -5.4 pts (William & Mary view)
- Total
- model 58.5 · market 54.5 · difference +4.0
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Holy Cross than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Holy Cross 29.0, William & Mary 29.6 | William & Mary 52%wrong winner | 27.6 | 3.5 |
| New formula | Holy Cross 30.8, William & Mary 26.9 | Holy Cross 60%right winner | 23.1 | 2.8 |
Final: Holy Cross 41, William & Mary 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Holy Cross vs William & Mary: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Holy Cross | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.82 | 5.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3 | 169.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.4 | 206.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.6 | 198.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.8 | 174.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 41.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 46.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 9.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 45.6% |
| Passing success rate | 30.8% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 30.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 44.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 63.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2% | 59.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Holy Cross schedule · William & Mary schedule · all Week 5 projections
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