Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Villanova 32, William & Mary 22.2 at Villanova Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Villanova wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 54.1 combined points.
William & Mary has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Villanova has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between William & Mary by 13 and Villanova by 32 about 80% of the time.
Villanova gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Villanova by about 7.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: William & Mary 35, Villanova 32. William & Mary won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (William & Mary / Villanova) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Villanova -11.5 → Villanova -12.5 | 50.5 → 47.5 | +462 / -700 |
| DraftKings | Villanova -11.5 → Villanova -12.5 | 50.5 → 47.5 | +462 / -700 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Villanova win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Villanova -10 | 54.1 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Villanova -12.5 | 47.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Villanova -12 | 48.9 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Villanova win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Villanova -9.8 · market Villanova -12.5 · difference -2.7 pts (Villanova view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 47.5 · difference +6.6
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward William & Mary than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | William & Mary 22.2, Villanova 32.0 | Villanova 74%wrong winner | 12.8 | 12.9 |
| New formula | William & Mary 14.7, Villanova 34.7 | Villanova 88%wrong winner | 23.0 | 17.5 |
Final: William & Mary 35, Villanova 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
William & Mary vs Villanova: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | William & Mary | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 20.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 6.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89 | 5.59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3 | 188.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.8 | 202.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.6 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.8 | 191.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 1.64 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 41.4% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 14.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 10.6% |
| Havoc rate | 9.3% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 3.63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 62.4 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 48.5% |
| Passing success rate | 39.9% | 41.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 32.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9% | 41.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0% | 58.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · Villanova schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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