2026 schedule
Villanova Wildcats
2026 season so far
Villanova is 4-4 against the 102nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 28.4 points per game (-3.4 per game).
Villanova plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Lafayette in Week 9. We project Villanova 30, Lafayette 25 — Villanova wins 63% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
William & Mary Tribe
1-0 · SOS #80
Loss 32-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 9.8
Total 54.2
DraftKings
VILL -12.5
Total 47.5
Final William & Mary by 3. William & Mary beat the spread. 67 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -12.5 (open Villanova -11.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 50.5) · ML +462 / -700 · Villanova 83% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -9 pct pts (Villanova view)
ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - at
Bucknell Bison
0-2 · SOS #116
Win 17-16
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 11.9
Total 56.7
DraftKings
VILL -22.5
Total 54.5
Final Villanova by 1. Bucknell beat the spread. 33 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -22.5 (open Villanova -26.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.5) · ML -3700 / +1160 · Bucknell 8% no-vig · model vs market +10.6 pts, +14 pct pts (Bucknell view)
ESPN+ Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium - at
#24 Louisville Cardinals
1-1 · SOS #17
Loss 13-59
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Louisville by 33.9
Total 52.1
DraftKings
LOU -39.5
Total 56.5
Final Louisville by 46. Louisville beat the spread. 72 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -39 (open Louisville -36.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 55.75) · model vs market -5.1 pts (Louisville view)
ACC Network L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium - at
Long Island University Sharks
0-4 · SOS #59
Win 20-16
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Long Island University by 1.1
Total 55.5
DraftKings
VILL -18.5
Total 50.5
Final Villanova by 4. Long Island University beat the spread. 36 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -18.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 45.5) · ML -1740 / +830 · Long Island University 10% no-vig · model vs market +19.6 pts, +43 pct pts (Long Island University view)
Shark Stadium - vs
Colgate Raiders
4-1 · SOS #84
Loss 21-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 4
Total 45.8
DraftKings
VILL -3
Total 44.5
Final Colgate by 7. Colgate beat the spread. 49 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -3 (open Villanova -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 46.5) · ML +118 / -147 · Villanova 56% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Villanova view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 63°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - vs
Morgan State Bears
4-1 · SOS #167
Loss 35-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 4.7
Total 50.7
DraftKings
VILL -16.5
Total 48.5
Final Morgan State by 3. Morgan State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -16.5 (open Villanova -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 45.5) · ML +467 / -710 · Villanova 83% no-vig · model vs market -11.8 pts, -21 pct pts (Villanova view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - at
Fordham Rams
2-6 · SOS #49
Win 38-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 7.6
Total 49.4
DraftKings
VILL -7.5
Total 44.5
Final Villanova by 21. Villanova beat the spread. 55 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -7.5 · O/U 44.5 (open 47.5) · ML -323 / +246 · Fordham 27% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Fordham view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGA)ESPN+ Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field - vs
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
6-2 · SOS #132
Win 24-18
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Lehigh by 8.5
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Villanova by 6. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 63°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - at
Lafayette Leopards
3-4 · SOS #129
Sat, Oct 31, 4:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-25 · 63%
Our number
Villanova by 5
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 55°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Fisher Stadium - vs
Richmond Spiders
6-2 · SOS #130
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-21 · 65%
Our number
Villanova by 6
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - at
Holy Cross Crusaders
3-5 · SOS #72
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 26-25 · 51%
Our number
Villanova by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fitton Field - vs
Georgetown Hoyas
3-4 · SOS #121
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-19 · 79%
Our number
Villanova by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Villanova Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Villanova Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-19.3
Adj. offense
16.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 25.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.53 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.74 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 155.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 219.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 174.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 215.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.88 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.13 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.74 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.40 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 11 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 57.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.15 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.21 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.2% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 22.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 36.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.9% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 46.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 47.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.