Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Villanova 28.5, Fordham 20.9 at Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Villanova wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 49.4 combined points.
Villanova is 2-4, scoring 23 and allowing 32 points per game (-9 per game). Fordham is 2-5, scoring 15.6 and allowing 30.4 points per game (-14.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Villanova by 30 and Fordham by 15 about 80% of the time.
Fordham gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Villanova is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Villanova 38, Fordham 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.4 points and the total by 5.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Villanova / Fordham) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Villanova -7.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | -323 / +246 |
| DraftKings | Villanova -7.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | -323 / +246 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fordham win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Villanova -7.5 | 49.4 | 31% |
| Market consensus | Villanova -7.5 | 44.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Villanova -7.5 | 46.0 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fordham win probability
- model 31% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Villanova -7.6 · market Villanova -7.5 · difference -0.1 pts (Fordham view)
- Total
- model 49.4 · market 44.5 · difference +4.9
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Villanova 28.5, Fordham 20.9 | Villanova 69%right winner | 13.4 | 5.6 |
| New formula | Villanova 28.6, Fordham 21.2 | Villanova 69%right winner | 13.6 | 5.3 |
Final: Villanova 38, Fordham 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Villanova vs Fordham: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Villanova | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 33.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.27 | 4.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.1 | 112.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 242.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.9 | 146.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.5 | 289.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.36 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.21 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 4.33 |
| Stat | Villanova | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 35.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 15.0% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 2.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54 | 4.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 3 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4 | 73.2 |
| Stat | Villanova | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 35.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Villanova schedule · Fordham schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.