Matchup analysis
Our model projects Villanova 26, Holy Cross 25 at Fitton Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Villanova wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 51 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Villanova is 4-4 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 28.4 points per game (-3.4 per game). Holy Cross is 3-5 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-6.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Villanova by 23 and Holy Cross by 22 about 80% of the time.
Holy Cross gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Villanova is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Villanova vs Holy Cross: stat comparison
| Stat | Villanova | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0 | 21.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.53 | 5.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 6.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0 | 142.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.9 | 205.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.1 | 142.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0 | 260.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Villanova | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 42.2% | 40.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 44.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2% | 15.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.1% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74 | 3.69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.40 | 4.01 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.4 | 62.6 |
| Stat | Villanova | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 45.9% | 37.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7% | 28.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 37.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8% | 63.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6% | 56.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Villanova schedule · Holy Cross schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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