Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lehigh 30.5, Villanova 22 at Villanova Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Lehigh wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.5 points and 52.4 combined points.
Lehigh is 6-1, scoring 34.3 and allowing 17 points per game (+17.3 per game). Villanova is 3-4, scoring 25.1 and allowing 29.9 points per game (-4.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lehigh by 31 and Villanova by 14 about 80% of the time.
Villanova gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lehigh is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lehigh 18, Villanova 24. Villanova won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 14.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lehigh 30.5, Villanova 22.0 | Lehigh 71%wrong winner | 14.5 | 10.4 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Lehigh 18, Villanova 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lehigh vs Villanova: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lehigh | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.8 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 20.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.78 | 6.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.85 | 5.59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.7 | 188.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.8 | 202.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.8 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.0 | 191.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 1.64 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0% | 14.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4% | 10.6% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.24 | 3.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6 | 62.4 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4% | 48.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 41.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6% | 32.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0% | 41.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 58.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lehigh schedule · Villanova schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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