Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Villanova 24.9, Colgate 20.9 at Villanova Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Villanova wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Colgate is 3-1, scoring 22.3 and allowing 11 points per game (+11.3 per game). Villanova is 2-2, scoring 20.5 and allowing 31.5 points per game (-11 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colgate by 19 and Villanova by 27 about 80% of the time.
Villanova gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Villanova by about 1.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Colgate 28, Villanova 21. Colgate won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colgate / Villanova) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Villanova -2.5 → Villanova -3 | 46.5 → 44.5 | +118 / -147 |
| DraftKings | Villanova -2.5 → Villanova -3 | 46.5 → 44.5 | +118 / -147 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Villanova win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Villanova -4 | 45.8 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Villanova -3 | 44.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Villanova -3 | 45.8 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Villanova win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Villanova -4 · market Villanova -3 · difference +1.0 pts (Villanova view)
- Total
- model 45.8 · market 44.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Villanova than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colgate 20.9, Villanova 24.9 | Villanova 60%wrong winner | 11.0 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Colgate 21.6, Villanova 24.6 | Villanova 58%wrong winner | 10.0 | 2.8 |
Final: Colgate 28, Villanova 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colgate vs Villanova: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colgate | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 20.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 6.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23 | 5.59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.2 | 188.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 202.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.4 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.2 | 191.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 0.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.18 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| Stat | Colgate | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 43.0% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 14.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 10.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56 | 3.63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.91 | 3.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9 | 62.4 |
| Stat | Colgate | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 48.5% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 41.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6% | 32.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3% | 41.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.5% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.1% | 58.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colgate schedule · Villanova schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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