Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Long Island University 28.3, Villanova 27.2 at Shark Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Long Island University wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 55.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Villanova is 1-2, scoring 20.7 and allowing 36.7 points per game (-16 per game). Long Island University is 0-3, scoring 13.3 and allowing 42.7 points per game (-29.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Villanova by 21 and Long Island University by 24 about 80% of the time.
Long Island University gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Villanova would be favoured by 1.
Result: Villanova 20, Long Island University 16. Villanova won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Villanova / Long Island University) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Villanova -18.5 | 45.5 → 50.5 | -1740 / +830 |
| DraftKings | Villanova -18.5 | 45.5 → 50.5 | -1740 / +830 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Long Island University win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Long Island University -1 | 55.5 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Villanova -18.5 | 50.5 | 10% |
| Blended projection | Villanova -15.5 | 51.5 | 15% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Long Island University win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 10% · difference +43 pts
- Margin
- model Long Island University -1.1 · market Villanova -18.5 · difference +19.6 pts (Long Island University view)
- Total
- model 55.5 · market 50.5 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 19.6 pts more toward Long Island University than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Villanova 27.2, Long Island University 28.3 | Long Island University 53%wrong winner | 5.1 | 19.5 |
| New formula | Villanova 30.5, Long Island University 19.7 | Villanova 76%right winner | 6.8 | 14.1 |
Final: Villanova 20, Long Island University 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Villanova vs Long Island University: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Villanova | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.27 | 5.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59 | 4.60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.1 | 196.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 156.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.9 | 140.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.5 | 159.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.21 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Villanova | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 39.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6% | 10.5% |
| Havoc rate | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 16.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 2.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54 | 3.50 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 3 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Villanova | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 37.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9% | 27.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 26.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 40.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 41.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 54.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Villanova schedule · Long Island University schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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