Matchup analysis
Our model projects Villanova 31, Georgetown 19 at Villanova Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Villanova wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.2 points and 49.3 combined points.
Georgetown is 3-4 against the 143rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 26 points per game (-5.7 per game). Villanova is 4-4 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 28.4 points per game (-3.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgetown by 10 and Villanova by 35 about 80% of the time.
Villanova gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Villanova by about 10.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Georgetown vs Villanova: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgetown | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 25.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 28.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.22 | 6.53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93 | 5.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.1 | 155.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 176.7 | 219.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.9 | 174.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.7 | 215.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Georgetown | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 42.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.9% | 45.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 15.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6 | 57.4 |
| Stat | Georgetown | Villanova |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.2% | 44.2% |
| Passing success rate | 37.7% | 45.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 32.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 36.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.5% | 41.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.5% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 47.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 63.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgetown schedule · Villanova schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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