Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisville 43, Villanova 9.1 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Louisville wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.9 points and 52.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Villanova is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-1 per game). Louisville (No. 24) is 0-1, scoring 38 and allowing 41 points per game (-3 per game).
Villanova plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Louisville's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 11 and Louisville by 56 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisville by about 31.8. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Villanova 13, Louisville 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.1 points and the total by 19.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Villanova / Louisville) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisville -36.5 → Louisville -39 | 55.75 → 56.75 | — / — |
| Bovada | Louisville -36.5 → Louisville -38.5 | 56 → 57 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Louisville -36.5 → Louisville -39.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisville win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisville -34 | 52.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Louisville -39 | 56.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Louisville -38.5 | 56.8 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisville win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Louisville -33.9 · market Louisville -39 · difference -5.1 pts (Louisville view)
- Total
- model 52.1 · market 56.75 · difference -4.6
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward Villanova than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Villanova 9.1, Louisville 43.0 | Louisville 99%right winner | 12.1 | 19.9 |
| New formula | Villanova 12.3, Louisville 40.8 | Louisville 96%right winner | 17.5 | 18.8 |
Final: Villanova 13, Louisville 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Villanova vs Louisville: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Villanova | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 29.9#46 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 21.2#38 |
| Yards per play | 6.27 | 6.41#28 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59 | 4.76#8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.1 | 178.4#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 228.8#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.9 | 130.8#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.5 | 173.6#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.36 | 1.15#88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71 | 1.31#35 |
| Sacks per game | 2.21 | 2.38#34 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 1.85#80 |
| Stat | Villanova | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.03#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.09#18 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 45.3%#37 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 36.9%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 12.5%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6% | 10.2%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0% | 13.5%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 12.5%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 3.86#79 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54 | 3.74#54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 34#6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 3 | own 28#43 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4 | 63.5#103 |
| Stat | Villanova | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.12#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.05#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.02#53 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.16#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5% | 50.7%#8 |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 41.0%#68 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3% | 21.2%#114 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9% | 27.5%#102 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 23.3%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 38.6%#93 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 33.5%#14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 66.7%#37 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8% | 59.4%#65 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Villanova schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 2 projections
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