Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colgate 29.7, Fordham 25.5 at Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Colgate wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Colgate has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Fordham has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colgate by 27 and Fordham by 18 about 80% of the time.
Fordham gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Colgate is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Colgate 24, Fordham 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 17.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colgate / Fordham) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colgate -10 → Colgate -8.5 | 50.5 → 55.5 | -318 / +242 |
| DraftKings | Colgate -10 → Colgate -8.5 | 50.5 → 55.5 | -318 / +242 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fordham win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colgate -4 | 55.1 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Colgate -8.5 | 55.5 | 28% |
| Blended projection | Colgate -8 | 55.8 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fordham win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 28% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Colgate -4.2 · market Colgate -8.5 · difference +4.3 pts (Fordham view)
- Total
- model 55.1 · market 55.5 · difference -0.4
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Fordham than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colgate 29.7, Fordham 25.5 | Colgate 61%right winner | 5.8 | 17.1 |
| New formula | Colgate 26.5, Fordham 28.7 | Fordham 55%wrong winner | 12.2 | 17.2 |
Final: Colgate 24, Fordham 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colgate vs Fordham: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colgate | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 33.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 4.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.2 | 112.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 242.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.4 | 146.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.2 | 289.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 4.33 |
| Stat | Colgate | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 43.0% | 35.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56 | 2.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.91 | 4.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9 | 73.2 |
| Stat | Colgate | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3% | 35.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.5% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.1% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colgate schedule · Fordham schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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