Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colgate 30, Cornell 18 at Andy Kerr Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Colgate wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Cornell has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Colgate is 2-1, scoring 23 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cornell by 11 and Colgate by 35 about 80% of the time.
Colgate gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colgate by about 9.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Cornell 7, Colgate 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 20.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cornell / Colgate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colgate -12.5 | 52.5 → 50.5 | +384 / -551 |
| DraftKings | Colgate -12.5 | 52.5 → 50.5 | +384 / -551 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colgate win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colgate -12 | 47.9 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Colgate -12.5 | 50.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Colgate -12.5 | 51.1 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colgate win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Colgate -12 · market Colgate -12.5 · difference -0.5 pts (Colgate view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 50.5 · difference -2.6
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Cornell than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cornell 18.0, Colgate 30.0 | Colgate 78%right winner | 1.0 | 20.9 |
| New formula | Cornell 19.2, Colgate 33.4 | Colgate 80%right winner | 1.3 | 25.6 |
Final: Cornell 7, Colgate 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cornell vs Colgate: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Cornell | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0 | 28.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.43 | 5.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41 | 6.23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.8 | 138.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 166.9 | 170.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.5 | 237.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60 | 1.64 |
| Stat | Cornell | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 44.0% | 43.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 69.9 |
| Stat | Cornell | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 45.1% | 42.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 35.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.9% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 56.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 68.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cornell schedule · Colgate schedule · all Week 3 projections
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