Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 40.8, Holy Cross 6.3 at Yager Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Miami (OH) wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.5 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Holy Cross is 0-2, scoring 10 and allowing 35 points per game (-25 per game). Miami (OH) is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 59 points per game (-45 per game).
Holy Cross plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Miami (OH)'s projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 12 and Miami (OH) by 57 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami (OH) by about 32.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Holy Cross 7, Miami (OH) 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Holy Cross / Miami (OH)) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami (OH) -30.5 | 49.75 → 46.75 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Miami (OH) -30.5 | 50 → 47 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Miami (OH) -30.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami (OH) win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami (OH) -34.5 | 47.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Miami (OH) -30.5 | 46.8 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Miami (OH) -31.5 | 47.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami (OH) win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Miami (OH) -34.5 · market Miami (OH) -30.5 · difference +4.0 pts (Miami (OH) view)
- Total
- model 47.1 · market 46.75 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Miami (OH) than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Holy Cross 6.3, Miami (OH) 40.8 | Miami (OH) 99%right winner | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| New formula | Holy Cross 12.1, Miami (OH) 38.9 | Miami (OH) 95%right winner | 11.2 | 1.0 |
Final: Holy Cross 7, Miami (OH) 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Holy Cross vs Miami (OH): stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Holy Cross | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 23.5#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 21.7#41 |
| Yards per play | 4.82 | 5.78#78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 5.29#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3 | 158.0#79 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.4 | 189.8#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.6 | 149.2#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.8 | 191.4#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.93#58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.29#39 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.79#11 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 1.86#83 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.03#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.06#37 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 40.0%#103 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 39.6%#45 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 12.1%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 9.9%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 13.1%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 12.6%#90 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.84#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 3.42#20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 60.2#127 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.05#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | -0.01#85 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.04#40 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.07#36 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 42.4%#85 |
| Passing success rate | 30.8% | 36.0%#117 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 18.3%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 28.7%#86 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 29.3%#68 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 35.1%#116 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5% | 43.3%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 59.1%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2% | 54.7%#32 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Holy Cross schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 2 projections
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