Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Holy Cross 30.8, Bucknell 16.8 at Fitton Field in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Holy Cross wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14 points and 47.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Bucknell is 1-6, scoring 10.3 and allowing 25 points per game (-14.7 per game). Holy Cross is 2-5, scoring 20.1 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-12.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bucknell by 9 and Holy Cross by 37 about 80% of the time.
Holy Cross gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Holy Cross by about 11.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Bucknell 3, Holy Cross 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17 points and the total by 10.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bucknell 16.8, Holy Cross 30.8 | Holy Cross 82%right winner | 17.0 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Bucknell 3, Holy Cross 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bucknell vs Holy Cross: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bucknell | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.1 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.53 | 4.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.58 | 5.87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.8 | 168.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.7 | 144.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.3 | 191.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.7 | 213.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.42 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Bucknell | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 39.0% | 35.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 41.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 10.4% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10 | 3.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Bucknell | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 30.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 24.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 28.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 32.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 33.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.5% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.8% | 57.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bucknell schedule · Holy Cross schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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