Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lehigh 26.7, Holy Cross 19.6 at Fitton Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Lehigh wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 46.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Lehigh has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Holy Cross has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lehigh by 30 and Holy Cross by 15 about 80% of the time.
Holy Cross gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lehigh is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lehigh 35, Holy Cross 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.9 points and the total by 1.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lehigh / Holy Cross) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lehigh -14 | 47.5 | -800 / +509 |
| DraftKings | Lehigh -14 | 47.5 | -800 / +509 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Holy Cross win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lehigh -7 | 46.2 | 32% |
| Market consensus | Lehigh -14 | 47.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | Lehigh -13 | 48.4 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Holy Cross win probability
- model 32% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Lehigh -7.1 · market Lehigh -14 · difference +6.9 pts (Holy Cross view)
- Total
- model 46.2 · market 47.5 · difference -1.3
Model margin is 6.9 pts more toward Holy Cross than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lehigh 26.7, Holy Cross 19.6 | Lehigh 68%right winner | 17.9 | 1.2 |
| New formula | Lehigh 26.7, Holy Cross 23.3 | Lehigh 58%right winner | 21.6 | 5.0 |
Final: Lehigh 35, Holy Cross 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lehigh vs Holy Cross: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lehigh | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.8 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.78 | 4.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.85 | 5.87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.7 | 168.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.8 | 144.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.8 | 191.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.0 | 213.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 35.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0% | 41.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0% | 9.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.24 | 3.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 30.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6% | 24.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 28.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0% | 32.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3% | 33.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 57.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lehigh schedule · Holy Cross schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.