Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Yale 30.6, Rhode Island 22.8 at Yale Bowl in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Yale wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 53.4 combined points.
Rhode Island is 3-3, scoring 22.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-1.5 per game). Yale is 3-1, scoring 33 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+8.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rhode Island by 15 and Yale by 30 about 80% of the time.
Yale gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Yale by about 5.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Rhode Island 41, Yale 23. Rhode Island won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 25.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rhode Island / Yale) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Yale -10 → Yale -12.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +343 / -478 |
| DraftKings | Yale -10 → Yale -12.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +343 / -478 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Yale win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Yale -8 | 53.4 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Yale -12.5 | 48.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Yale -12 | 49.7 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Yale win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Yale -7.8 · market Yale -12.5 · difference -4.7 pts (Yale view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 48.5 · difference +4.9
Model margin is 4.7 pts more toward Rhode Island than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rhode Island 22.8, Yale 30.6 | Yale 70%wrong winner | 25.8 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Rhode Island 24.0, Yale 29.5 | Yale 64%wrong winner | 23.5 | 10.6 |
Final: Rhode Island 41, Yale 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rhode Island vs Yale: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rhode Island | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3 | 29.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 19.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.75 | 5.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4 | 185.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 296.1 | 219.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 146.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 216.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 37.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 14.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 12.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 45.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9% | 33.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.1% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.5% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rhode Island schedule · Yale schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.