Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Yale 30.1, Cornell 24.5 at Schoellkopf Field in Week 4. That is a lean: Yale wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 54.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Yale is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 28 points per game (+10 per game). Cornell is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 20 points per game (-13 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Yale by 28 and Cornell by 17 about 80% of the time.
Cornell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Yale is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Yale 25, Cornell 38. Cornell won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Yale / Cornell) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Yale -15.5 → Yale -14 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -376 / +280 |
| DraftKings | Yale -15.5 → Yale -14 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -376 / +280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cornell win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Yale -5.5 | 54.5 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Yale -14 | 48.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Yale -12.5 | 49.8 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cornell win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Yale -5.6 · market Yale -14 · difference +8.4 pts (Cornell view)
- Total
- model 54.5 · market 48.5 · difference +6.0
Model margin is 8.4 pts more toward Cornell than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Yale 30.1, Cornell 24.5 | Yale 64%wrong winner | 18.6 | 8.5 |
| New formula | Yale 28.2, Cornell 26.0 | Yale 55%wrong winner | 15.2 | 8.8 |
Final: Yale 25, Cornell 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Yale vs Cornell: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Yale | Cornell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.3 | 21.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 26.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.97 | 5.43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39 | 5.41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.3 | 158.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.6 | 233.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.2 | 166.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 199.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 1.30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Stat | Yale | Cornell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 44.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.5% | 40.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 72.3 |
| Stat | Yale | Cornell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 48.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.4% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 26.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 39.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 43.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Yale schedule · Cornell schedule · all Week 4 projections
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